Post Brexit positivity – for now.
Consumer confidence has not been dented by Brexit and nor has the stock market.
A few things have helped, not least the good weather and the feel-good factor engendered by Team GB at the Olympics. Prompt monetary action from the Bank of England, coupled with the fact that there was not a long drawn out contest for the Conservative party leadership also helped.
The latest figures show that unemployment is down, prices are holding steady, shoppers are both confident and spending, plus the government had a budget surplus in July.
The latest economic forecast from Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, also provides some reassuring numbers. Moody’s are predicting that the UK economy will slow down a bit but not enter a recession. It expects growth of 1.5% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2017, which would see the economy not exactly in a robust state of health but on a par with the GDP growth witnessed in the recovery years of 2011 and 2012.
The upshot is that whilst share prices plunged the day after Brexit, the FTSE100 has rallied and by close of play last night stood at 6820.79, over 23% up since February’s low of 5537.
Whilst this suggests that the doom and gloom of 'project fear' was overdone somewhat, it should be remembered that we are still in a state of limbo and will be for well over two years yet, depending on when Article 50 is finally invoked.
For investors, who should always be looking to the long-term, the point of maximum pessimism has probably passed but there are still opportunities out there. Equities in general remain attractive, particularly consumer-facing companies, whilst property and housebuilder shares look undervalued. However, investors should bear in mind that the tricky Brexit negotiations in the next year or two will have some impact on the markets.
To discuss the post Brexit world and its ramifications for your investment portfolio, contact Kellands.